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 The UK General Election 2015

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SarahN
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 23, 2015 10:01 pm

Strangely nobody seems to have picked up on the Radio 1 affair I mentioned earlier.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11556469/Listen-to-David-Camerons-hostile-Radio-1-interview.html

I was not in fact surprised that Cameron got the heat there, nor that he wasn't able to nail every detail. What struck me was how apparently nobody - not the audience, not the presenter, not the people asking - was the tiniest little bit interested in Cameron's answers. One would think if he takes the trouble to open himself for all kinds of questions the least the audience could do was make the most out of it. By now he's unlikely to win over voters - and yet, wouldn't it be at least interesting to learn what and why he answers as he does? Baffling, to say the least.
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 23, 2015 11:02 pm

SarahN wrote:
Ambler, it was your own piss-poor touchy reaction that lend my question - rhetoric as it may have been - a gravitas it didn't have in the first place.

A bit disingenuous. I responded to your shit-stirring with Hi-NRG disco and a quote from T.S.Eliot's The Waste Land, see below. That's not exactly a Jason Donovan-style writ.

Erica Ambler wrote:
SarahN wrote:
 I just have to ask now: you are gay, Ambler, aren't you?

That's a statement not a question. Let's just say there's a lot of cunts in this forum, but none I'd want to fuck.

But I'm getting a strong sense of déjà vu here. Good night, ladies, good night, sweet ladies, good night, good night...


SarahN wrote:
Who am I to accuse such a ostentatiously virile, faultless and emblematic specimen of the XY chromosome set of anything but straightforwardness?

Well, I'd have thought my calling myself Erica might be a clue...
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SarahN
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:05 am

Sure, pet. Whatever sails your boat.

Back to topic, I'm impressed by Cameron's plans for the England-only income tax, strikes me as sensible move.


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/24/cameron-manifesto-england-only-income-tax-2016-ukip?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

Cameron will say: “We do not support English nationalists. We do not want an English parliament. We are the Conservative and Unionist party through and through. This manifesto simply recognises that the democratic picture has got more complicated in the UK so, beyond our main manifesto, English voters deserve one document, clarifying in black and white what they can expect.”

Jim Murphy calling for social solidarity seems outdated, he clearly hasn't heard the shot. I suppose this Tory plan could help them along in some crucial areas. Will it be the turn-round for their campaign? I for one don't believe they are as weak as some make them out to be.

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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:15 pm

Scotland is on course to become a one-party Socialist state:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon/11570881/Poll-SNP-on-course-for-clean-sweep-in-Scotland.html

Much as I despise Labour and feel a certain schadenfreude at its self-induced destruction, I can't say I think democratic totalitarianism is a good thing. Still, at least we'll get a five-year plan for haggis production.
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HJackson
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:31 pm

Salmond was right last year that a No vote in the referendum was simply a delayed Yes vote. It is increasingly clear that the Scottish form a distinct demos, to such an extent that every seat in the entire country is set to go to a seperatist party that doesn't want to be in the union. Was it really worth all those idiotic promises from sentimental unionists to keep Scotland from flying the nest from our "family of nations"?

This next parliament is going to be complete chaos but a Lab/SNP deal will put UKIP in prime position to snatch a good bundle of increasingly vulnerable seats in Labour's former northern heartlands - so, looking to the long-term health of our country, this arrangement certainly has its advantages.
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:41 pm

HJackson wrote:
a Lab/SNP deal will put UKIP in prime position to snatch a good bundle of increasingly vulnerable seats in Labour's former northern heartlands - so, looking to the long-term health of our country, this arrangement certainly has its advantages.

All independent polling suggests that UKIP will come second in many seats, but fail to win more than one or two, which will put Britain's first-past-the-post system back in the firing line.

It's certainly going to be an interesting next five years with the United Kingdom set to be ruled by a  party working for its dismemberment. I'm trying to think of a historical precedent for that.
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HJackson
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 2:56 pm

I think UKIP will hold Clacton for sure. Other than that the polling suggests they'll win Thurrock and South Thanet, and before 2010 vote reallocation etc. is applied to the polls they put them ahead in Castle Point and Boston & Skegness. I also think Mark Reckless will hold Rochester & Strood once his name is on the ballot paper, but that's speculation on my part. I certainly think they'll win somewhere in the region of 5-8 rather than 2, and I'll probably put some money on them taking over 3.5 before polling day.

Nonetheless, lots of second places in the north is what they're going to need in this election if they want to develop into a significant force in Westminster. This kind of thing takes multiple election cycles, as the experience of the Reform Party of Canada attests.

I also suspect, as far as the SNP goes, that they might want to pull out of any confidence and supply arrangement before the 2016 Scottish Parliament election for messaging purposes.
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 3:13 pm

Most interesting. I'm not familiar with the electoral system in Canada, but I hope you’re right. Regardless of what anyone thinks about UKIP, any significant challenge to the complacency of the so-called Big Three can only be a good thing.

I do wonder about UKIP’s future after Farage, though. Clearly he's unwell. Still, I assume the Tory defectors factored that into their calculations when they made their moves.

And, as you say, the growing support for UKIP among what’s left of the traditional working class is a fascinating development. I think there's an increasing recognition that Labour is now the party of public-sector workers, professional claimants, benefit tourists and self-styled victims rather than the ordinary working man.  That’s partly why it’s so amusing when Miliband talks of his plans for ‘hard-working’ families - I can’t think of many more blatant cases of gerrymandering than what Labour has been up to in the last few years.
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 4:04 pm

Erica Ambler wrote:
HJackson wrote:
a Lab/SNP deal will put UKIP in prime position to snatch a good bundle of increasingly vulnerable seats in Labour's former northern heartlands - so, looking to the long-term health of our country, this arrangement certainly has its advantages.

All independent polling suggests that UKIP will come second in many seats, but fail to win more than one or two, which will put Britain's first-past-the-post system back in the firing line.

It's certainly going to be an interesting next five years with the United Kingdom set to be ruled by a  party working for its dismemberment. I'm trying to think of a historical precedent for that.

Separatists in power? We are having that experiment right now in Belgium. It's been... interesting.
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 4:54 pm

Salomé wrote:
Separatists in power? We are having that experiment right now in Belgium. It's been... interesting.

Oh really? So much for unprecedented then...

What's been happening in Belgium? I am aware that you were without a government for a while yet the country seemed to function perfectly well. wink
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Wed Apr 29, 2015 6:36 pm

Erica Ambler wrote:
Salomé wrote:
Separatists in power? We are having that experiment right now in Belgium. It's been... interesting.

Oh really? So much for unprecedented then...

What's been happening in Belgium? I am aware that you were without a government for a while yet the country seemed to function perfectly well. wink

We actually had a faster growing economy in the 500+ days without a government. colgate

Right now we have a coalition of the Flemish separatists (NVA), Christian Democrats and Liberal Democrats.
However, as the biggest party, the NVA has been determining the course, and it's been a painful process. Lots of bickering even within the majority.
I honestly cannot see this lasting four more years. It's a bit of a problem if the party at the helm of the country does no longer believe in said country's continued existence.
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Salomé
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:46 am

Interestingly enough, Nate Silver has predicted that the Tories will likely win, but will always need the SNP to form a coalition. Considering his great track record with making these predictions, it's certainly worth discussing that scenario.
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:11 am

The SNP won't do a deal with the Tories so I doubt Silver said that. Although the Conservatives may gain  the largest vote, it'll still be unable to form a majority government even with the help of the LibDems and Northern Ireland parties. (I'm assuming UKIP don't win more than a couple of seats here.) Unless that's what Silver/you meant?

Right now, I'm assuming that the Tories beat Labour in the vote, but that Labour forms a government propped up by the SNP despite Ed Miliband saying that is not an option. So the whole UK will be controlled by a tiny group of MPs from Scotland dedicated to the destruction of the kingdom. It's clear that Britain's electoral system is broken and cannot accommodate scenarios involving more than three large parties.

(Thanks for the info on Belgium, BTW. Was reading about the NVA last night. Interesting situation you have there ... )
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:38 am

Just catching up with the online papers - yeah, a slow start for me - and the Grauniad has a fair summary of the situation:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/datablog/2015/apr/30/tories-lead-the-contest-for-largest-party-but-ed-miliband-leads-the-race-to-no-10

A reader's comment below the main article sums up my own feelings:

Quote :
What a fantastic system. We will likely end up with the not very inspirational leader of the second most popular party becoming PM for the simple reason that Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP's only appreciable policy is "we hate the Tories".

Can we please have a "who wants to kick Scotland out of the Union?" referendum and let us decide for ourselves who runs the country.
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Salomé
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 30, 2015 11:18 am

Erica Ambler wrote:
The SNP won't do a deal with the Tories so I doubt Silver said that. Although the Conservatives may gain  the largest vote, it'll still be unable to form a majority government even with the help of the LibDems and Northern Ireland parties. (I'm assuming UKIP don't win more than a couple of seats here.) Unless that's what Silver/you meant?

Right now, I'm assuming that the Tories beat Labour in the vote, but that Labour forms a government propped up by the SNP despite Ed Miliband saying that is not an option. So the whole UK will be controlled by a tiny group of MPs from Scotland dedicated to the destruction of the kingdom. It's clear that Britain's electoral system is broken and cannot accommodate scenarios involving more than three large parties.

(Thanks for the info on Belgium, BTW. Was reading about the NVA last night. Interesting situation you have there ... )

http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/uk-general-election-predictions/

It's based on this fivethirtyeight piece.

In the scenario you describe, Labour would need more than just SNPs help.
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lachesis
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:39 pm

Erica Ambler wrote:

Right now, I'm assuming that the Tories beat Labour in the vote, but that Labour forms a government propped up by the SNP despite Ed Miliband saying that is not an option. So the whole UK will be controlled by a tiny group of MPs from Scotland dedicated to the destruction of the kingdom. It's clear that Britain's electoral system is broken and cannot accommodate scenarios involving more than three large parties.

This is the way I see it panning out, I think last minute support for UKIP will collapse to a large extent although persist most strongly where they impact directly on Tory seats. Ironically Lib/Dems biggest achievement in their stint in office was the referendum on voting reform...something clearly much needed in terms of genuine representation in government, however it can only come with a significant change in party politics and public attitude - I agree the SNP won't work with the Tories but in many ways legislation should probably demand that is exactly the scenario that should play out - government working in the best interests of country ahead of party colour.
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Thu Apr 30, 2015 12:47 pm

lachesis wrote:
government working in the best interests of country ahead of party colour.

In an ideal world...

It's a fascinating election with huge ramifications although I'm not sure the British media realises that. They seem more disappointed by the lack of 'foot in mouth' quotes this time around. That said, Jim Murphy, the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, seems to have called the election for Cameron. I can only assume this is a last minute tactical decision as it's an extraordinary thing for him to say:

http://tinyurl.com/khhbale

Regardless of how this plays out, the collapse of the Labour vote and electoral machine in Scotland is surely unparalleled. Miliband would be home and dry if things had gone to plan up there.
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Fri May 01, 2015 10:40 am

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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Fri May 01, 2015 12:21 pm

Remarkable leaders special on BBC last night. Remarkable because for the first time the audience seemed to be representative of ordinary people rather than the North London elite. Clearly the BBC needs to get out of the capital more often. This exchange is typical of the tough questioning the parties' leaders received:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/article11575643.ece#ooid=MxeGZ0dDodlMd_i7ty0e_QAMr08IsazF

Ed Miliband seemed to say that he would rather see the Conservatives returned to government than form a coalition with the SNP, which seems unlikely. Maybe he intends to use the SNP on a vote by vote basis.
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Fri May 01, 2015 2:51 pm

To be fair, this is true for a lot of the behavior that is deemed acceptable - for whatever reason - in politics:

Quote :
"Why on earth should we trust a chancellor who says letter like that was a joke? If he worked in the corporate world he’d have been fired and he would not be allowed back to do that job, and you're telling me he can.”
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Sat May 02, 2015 8:55 pm

Ed Miliband - his face is made of plasticine and he wants a female Bond next.
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Sat May 02, 2015 8:56 pm

And the only leader who couldn't master the Question Time Q-shaped platform.
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Sun May 03, 2015 12:09 am

Quote :
[David Cameron dismissed] Miliband’s claim that he will not form a pact with the SNP as a blatant lie, accusing him of ‘pulling a fast one – as big a fast one as Jesse James meets the OK Corral meets Shane.’

Seems one of Cameron's soundbite writers is a Western fan. Who'd funk it?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3065620/David-Cameron-lying-SNP-won-t-just-money-away-ll-away-country.html#ixzz3Z1Nq4VGu
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Erica Ambler
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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Sun May 03, 2015 8:19 pm





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PostSubject: Re: The UK General Election 2015   Sun May 03, 2015 8:25 pm

Ha! That's about right!
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