The UK General Election 2015

Now that the freak-show is over - for the time being - it's necessary to look at the matter from a realistic POW. The Eurosceptics managed to drive Cameron into the corner so all he had left in terms of a strategy - for lack of a better word - was to promise a 'better deal' and that Britain would pick for itself what suits us best. But is that really a realistic option for the future? From what I gather no other EU nation looks particularly fond on what they now perceive as our cherry picker mentality. And a better deal, that phrase largely ignores that the UK already does have a set of extraordinary concessions and exceptions secured for itself under the current terms. I can really not see how we would succeed in getting a seizable majority of the other members behind our demands for even better terms than we already enjoy. It would be different if there was any unique quality, competence or faculty only Britain and nobody else brings to the table. But that simply not the case any more - or not yet, whichever way you want to look at it. The EU would lose a valuable member with the UK, but hardly an essential, indispensable one. To the contrary, there are EU countries who could hope for a massively increased influence on the EU once Britain is gone, both in terms of political influence and economical weight. So I have no hope a substantial improvement of Britain's terms is realistically in the cards, no matter what some populists may tell me.

On the other hand there is the promised land of a strange kind of 'second British Empire' the outers hope to establish on the morning of the Brexit. Asian markets, increased trade and exchange with the former colonies and what a bright new future in the Commonwealth. All that sounds pretty splendid to me, only if I look at the facts I have to wonder. It's not as if the UK's EU membership forbade trade with the Commonwealth or Asia. And yet, in spite of over five years of financial crisis in the EU and efforts to claim the markets of Asia since forever, still 50% of our trade we export into the common market. Nobody can explain to me why this should be when we supposedly don't profit from the market. And we'd certainly want to keep that piece of the cake whether we're in or out.

The common market is probably the best thing that can happen to a nation of traders, where there's a market we have to be present. In case of the Brexit that would mean we'd have to negotiate our way in that market from scratch, that would be possible. But how long would it take, months or years? A decade, given how little interest there will be to make it easy for us on the other side? And what about the industries currently dependent on the market, do we just set them up with subsidies in the meantime?

I'm also concerned how all this is going to reflect on our general image. Economy isn't just a field of facts and figures, a lot of emotion comes into the picture too, if we're perfectly honest. And there I think we already suffered more than a bit by showing sympathy for an agenda that at the core is not really in line with the European ideals. There is no doubt for me that a large multi-national institution such as the EU needs reform to stay competitive and relevant. But the EU is often just the scapegoat for national shortcomings and grievances, be that on the Continent or here. I do see where the supporters of protectionism are coming from, everything would be so much easier if we'd only have to mind our own national business and not concern us with others. But that's simply not an option for a modern economy. With productivity - even such lousy productivity as Britain's often is/was - there comes the ability to produce more than just for the national markets. Even small to middling businesses have international ties today, suppliers and customers from all over the world. In this kind of economic climate protectionism and nationalism have simply no future any longer.

All in all I'm sceptic whether Cameron will really be able to deliver substantial changes for the future, be that in or outside the EU. Neither do I see how Eurosceptics would be able to change the simple fact that half of Britain's industry is dependent on the common market, the biggest market in the world right at our doorstep. I can understand that some - out of a deep frustration with the EU, sometimes also out of a misguided sense of entitlement - would wish for a vastly different reality where their supposed importance is acknowledged, their concerns addressed. For a topic of such vast import, with ramifications likely affecting the rest of this century, there has got to be a very good and solid case for the Brexit before I'm convinced. For now that's not the case.