WINDFALL at the Box Office

Bond 23 vs de rest Box Office place in In your country / The world.

On this page you can see the movies from 2012 http://www.imdb.com/year/2012/

The Netherlands:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 24 Million (Avatar 23,7 / King 19,5)
2. .Ice Age: Continental Drift - 11,6 million (Ice Age III 13,4, Ice Age II 7,8.)
3. Bond 23 - 11,3 million (QOS 2th place of 2008 with 8,8 million/Slumdog Miljonair 5,2 million in 2009)
4. Madagascar III (Madagascar II 3th place of 2008 with 8,7 million)
4. Dark Knight Rises - 4,8-5,6 Million (TDK 7,2, 5th place of 2008)
5. The Lorax (The Incredibles 5,7 million in 2004.)

The Amazing Spider-Man 3,6 million. I hope it flops, but iam afraid not.
The Bourne Legacy 1,9-2,3 million (Ultimatum 3,4) No Matt Damon, mabey it helps the new actor is already seen in Mission Impossible 4 and he doing a voice for the 4th Ice Age movie. If it be a lucky September then The Bourne Legacy mabey suprise us again.

Worldwide:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.
2. Dark Knight Rises (TDK 1 billion) Not so much as TDK, but possible stil be good for 750-850 million.
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift 754 million
4. Madagascar III - 719 million. The first Madagascar movie deliever 532 million. Madagascar II more then 600 million. Shrek The Third deliever 799 million whyle the first Shrek deliever 490 million.
5. The Avengers 600-700 (Iron Man 585)
6. Bond 23 - 640-670 million (QOS 590 million) 140 million from the Vs.
7. The Lorax. 550-570 million. I thaught How To Train a Dragon going to flop, but it deliever 460 million.
8. The Wolverine. 440-490 million.

Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Sea of Monsters. First movie 226 million. Get some respect there don't make the same mistake as Eragon who don't get the sequel. Chris Columbus don't return as directer, insteed Fox take the second united directer of The Haunted Mansion as directer. Also there take other writers. The same cast as the first movie and with some luck mabey a box office above 300 million.

Iam not sjure or MIB III is seen in 2012 if so 400-450 million. It is a whyle go, but the movie is written by the second writer of Tropic Thunder.

Die Hard 5. Not sjure or this release in 2012 also. To soon to say something.

The BO battle between THE HOBBIT and THE DARK KNIGHT RISES will be an interesting one.

Though if Bond loses to MADAGASCAR 3...

Well, in the USA, Quantum of Solace made around $67 million its opening weekend...quite strong, and far better than Casino Royale's surprisingly low opening weekend of $40 million dollars. (Less than DAD's $42 million four years before :o )

I think that Bond 23 will make between $55 million and $65 million its opening weekend in the United States. Quantum of Solace's opening weekend was so high due to the fact that people like Casino Royale so much...and because QOS wasn't as well received, I have a feeling Bond 23's opening will be a little less.

But $55-$65 million isn't anything to be disappointed with; especially if it has a long healthy run like Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace did.

When it comes to a world wide totals, Casino Royale made $594 million, and Quantum of Solace made $586 million...so with increasing ticket prices and all that, I will (very unscientifically) predict Bond 23 to settle at around $600 million dollars worldwide. I feel that it will be roughly as successful as the other two Craig films.

At this moment The Avengers is the number 1 - 2012 movie at the boxoffice with a count who beat 2011 biggest boxoffice movie Harry Potter 8.

This the rank of the 2012 movies who be in the Top 487 at the moment.

1. The Avengers $1,355.2
2. Hunger Games $645.2
3. MIB 3 $386.9
4. The Intouchables $344.1
5. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked $338.7
6. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325.2
7. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $308.5
8. Wrath of the Titans $301.4
9. Battleship $290.1
10. John Carter $282.3
11. American Reunion aka American Pie 8 $226.6
12. Safe House $202.5

Top 5 biggest Boxoffice ever now look like this:

1. Avatar $2,782.3
2. Titanic $2,185.3
3. The Avengers $1,355.2
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $1,328.1
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon $1,123.7

Top 15 in The Netherlands:

1 The Avengers (2012) Disney $5,970,648 4/25
2 The Hunger Games n/a $4,523,166 3/22
3 American Reunion UPI $3,872,019 4/5
4 The Muppets Disney $3,379,778 2/9
5 Titanic 3D WB $2,615,303 4/5
6 The Descendants WB $2,510,197 2/2
7 Cool Kids Don't Cry n/a $2,504,261 2/16
8 The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) Sony $2,501,036 1/19
9 Safe House UPI $2,444,442 2/23
10 This Means War WB $2,249,406 2/23
11 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax UPI $2,186,476 4/12
12 The Iron Lady n/a $1,937,439 1/12
13 Süskind n/a $1,912,323 1/19
14 Project X WB $1,878,508 3/1
15 The Dictator UPI $1,658,271 5/17
16 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB $1,621,815 2/16
17 Battleship UPI $1,546,652 4/19
18 John Carter Disney $1,537,439 3/8
19 Sprookjesboom de Film n/a $1,374,249 2/23
20 Wrath of the Titans WB $1,357,923 3/29
21 Hugo UPI $1,302,996 2/16
22 Dark Shadows WB $1,237,104 5/10
23 Chronicle (2012) WB $1,179,233 3/15
24 The Pirates! Band of Misfits Sony $1,173,004 4/26
25 Tony 10 n/a $1,153,323 2/16

More http://boxofficemojo.com/intl/netherlands/yearly/

Because of the good.nice weather past 2 weeks MIB 3 open with a disapointed boxoffice under the 600.000 with 104 theater counts.
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo with a litle bit more then 2 million is much for that kind of movie.

The 5 million region The Avengers deliever in my country be in 2011 for Transformers 3 what be good for a 11th place.

The Top 10 of 2011 deliever 6 million or more..

1 Gooische vrouwen Indep. $21,517,364 3/10
2 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows (Part Two) WB $17,236,734 7/13
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3D) Disney $14,567,517 5/19
4 Nova zembla Benelux $10,851,343 11/24
5 The Smurfs Sony $10,132,426 8/3
6 The Hangover Part II WB $8,684,316 5/26
7 Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked WB $7,034,148 12/15
8 Rio WB $6,112,846 4/21
9 Puss in Boots UPI $6,049,436 12/8
10 Cars 2 Disney $6,037,506 7/7
11 Transformers 3 UPI $5,680,965 6/30

In the mean time Wolverine 2 & Die Hard 5 confirmd to be a 2012 movie, Bond 23 be titeld Skyfall, i have seen the teaser trailer and poster and MIB 3 releasing. For Skyfall i don't change my prediction much. Skyfall 640-740 million (QOS 590 million) 140 million from the Vs. 440-460 for MIB3.

QOS already get 135 theater counts in my country, i wil predict it wil get 142 screen like The Matrix 2 in 2003 who open with 2,2 million, QOS open with 2,4 million, CR open with 1,6 million (132 screens). Skyfall will open with 2,8 millon. 11-12 million as end result for Skyfall should be possible.In my first post from July i already predict 11,3 million (QOS 2th place of 2008 with 8,8 million). With a theater count of 142 it be 29 more then DAD who whasn't enough. Skyfall release at the start of November, where QOS almoost start at the end of the first week with 6 November 2008, CR release in third week of November 2006. There stil can delay the movie til 8 (or 15 November) it be enough time before The Hobbit. 5 (4) weeks is enough, with 1 November there have 6 weeks. QOS stay 2 weeks on number 1 but deliever 2 million les then CR (10 million) who stay 5 weeks on number 1, with 6 weeks Eon hopes on some simalar like CR or QOS. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa beat QOS after 2 weeks. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part 2 is the biggest risk with a 14 Novemer release date what mean it can happen something lik QOS Skyfall stay 2 weeks on number 1.

Worldwide:

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey stil think it wil in 2013 confirmd it be the number 1 - 2012 movie. With The Avengers deliever more then 1,3 billion i must set The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey on 1,677 or something.

The number 3 of 2012 going to be Dark Knight Rises with 850- 1 million.

The 719 million of Madagascar 3 i predict i whant give now to Ice Age: Continental Drift 719-754 million. It is to silence at the moment around the movie.

Madagascar 3 i wil correct to 554-624 million.

If this gets good reviews and has good word of mouth, I see this beating Quantum by a bit. Taking IMAX into consideration, as well as the pub for this being the 50th anniversary, I'm going with a $65 million opening weekend and $650 million worldwide.

Another key number, at least in the U.S. -- what will the falloff be from first to second weekend?

50 percent is considered normal. Quantum's second weekend in U.S. had a 60 percent falloff. Quantum went up again the first Twilight movie, Skyfall against the finale. We'll see. If it's closer to the normal 50 percent, Sony and MGM should be happy.

SJK91 wrote:

Well, in the USA, Quantum of Solace made around $67 million its opening weekend...quite strong, and far better than Casino Royale's surprisingly low opening weekend of $40 million dollars. (Less than DAD's $42 million four years before :o )

I think that Bond 23 will make between $55 million and $65 million its opening weekend in the United States. Quantum of Solace's opening weekend was so high due to the fact that people like Casino Royale so much...and because QOS wasn't as well received, I have a feeling Bond 23's opening will be a little less.

But $55-$65 million isn't anything to be disappointed with; especially if it has a long healthy run like Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace did.

When it comes to a world wide totals, Casino Royale made $594 million, and Quantum of Solace made $586 million...so with increasing ticket prices and all that, I will (very unscientifically) predict Bond 23 to settle at around $600 million dollars worldwide. I feel that it will be roughly as successful as the other two Craig films.

Casino also was never No. 1 during a U.S. weekend. But it was a close No. 2 three weeks in a row to Happy Feet.

Quantum had a bigger opening weekend, but it fell off much quicker as well.

We'll have to start a SKYFALL betting thread soon.

Baker Street credit will be given to a winner.

$75 million - North America opening
$235 million - North America total
$525 million - international total
$760 million - global total

This the rank of the 20 - 2012 movies who be in the Top 496 at the moment:

1-1. The Avengers $1,460.0
2-2. Hunger Games $681.1
N-3. The Amazing Spider-Man $619.7
3-4. MIB 3 $618.9
N-5. Ice Age: Continental Drift $548.3
N-6. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $490.4
N-7. Snow White and the Huntsman $381.3
4-8. The Intouchables $356.2
N-9. The Dark Knight Rises $337.1
6-10. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325.9
7-11. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $311.0
8-12. Wrath of the Titans $302.0
9-13. Battleship $301.7
N-14. Prometheus $300.4
10-15. John Carter $282.8
N-16. Brave $282.4
N-17. Dark Shadows $234.2
11-18. American Reunion aka American Pie 8 $233.5
N-19. Ted $224.3
12-20. Safe House $202.5

Notes:

Removed. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked. This whasn't a 2012 made movie, but 2011. Why this slip in to the list don't know.
American Reunion aka American Pie 8 isn't credit in the list and i take over from the boxoffice page it self, strange because with previous update it whas.

Top 5 biggest Boxoffice ever is stil same:

1. Avatar $2,782.3
2. Titanic $2,185.4
3. The Avengers $1,460.0
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 $1,328.1
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon $1,123.7


Dutch Boxoffice:

Madagascar 3 opens with 2,6 million with 205 theater counts, TDKR with 1,7 million and 189 theater counts. Madagascar 3 start with a dispapointed opening, but delieverd 1,9 million in the other 3 days. TDKR wins with the opening weekend, but lost intrest after this. We all know why this happend, but possible the movie will fight back in the second or third week.

After 3 weeks Ice Age 4 delievered 5,3 million with a theater count of 292. The movie stay for 2 weeks on number 1. Because of TDKR and Madagascar 3 this week the movie go to the 3th place. Snow White and the Huntsman stays 3 weeks on number 1 before Spidey and after 7 weeks deliever $3,572,040. Amazing Spider-Man need 4 weeks to get 2,8 million with a theater count of 97 (starts with 109) and only for 1 on number 1. 21 Jump Street need 5 weeks to deliever $1,711,350.

Top 26:

1 The Avengers (2012) Disney $6,609,804 4/25
2 Ice Age: Continental Drift WB $5,887,483 7/5
3 Intouchables n/a $4,570,372 3/22
4 The Hunger Games n/a $4,525,341 3/22
5 American Reunion UPI $3,872,019 4/5
6 Snow White and the Huntsman UPI $3,572,040 6/7
7 The Muppets Disney $3,379,778 2/9
8 MIB 3 Sony $2,956,169 5/23
9 The Dictator UPI $2,836,361 5/17
10 The Amazing Spider-Man Sony $2,742,394 6/28
11 Titanic 3D WB $2,615,303 4/5
12 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted UPI $2,599,765 7/19
13 The Descendants WB $2,510,197 2/2
14 Cool Kids Don't Cry n/a $2,504,261 2/16
15 The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) Sony $2,501,036 1/19
16 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax UPI $2,477,417 4/12
17 Safe House UPI $2,444,442 2/23
18 This Means War WB $2,249,406 2/23
19 Prometheus WB $2,217,912 5/31
20 Magic Mike n/a $1,969,259 7/12
21 The Iron Lady n/a $1,937,439 1/12
22 Süskind n/a $1,912,323 1/19
23 Project X WB $1,878,508 3/1
24 Jackie n/a $1,827,546 5/10
25 What to Expect When You're Expecting n/a $1,806,845 5/24
26 The Dark Knight Rises WB $1,712,923 7/20

News:

In the mean time GI Joe 2 is delayd til 2013. After Jack the Giant Killer this is another movie who is delayd.
Another movie who is now part of 2012 is Taken 2. In The Netherlands this move is released on 25 October, 1 week before Skyfall.

In August the focus wil possible be on Total Recall re-make and The Expendables 2. In The Netherlands also we can expct the release of Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, and To Rome with Love.

I know that this this sound a little bit over optimistic but I honestly believe that SF will be the highest-grossing Bond film ever and pull in approximately $700M world-wide (of course, this would not be the highest-grossing Bond film when including inflation/ticket sales but it would certainly be up there with them). I believe this for three main reasons:

1) It has been a whole four years since the last Bond film came out and so people have been starved of Bond.
2) There is generally a good buzz and hype around SF with many predicting (myself included) that it will be one of the best Bond film's ever.
3) There should be more promotion than usual for it considering it is the 50th Anniversary Bond film, also with Bond featuring during the opening of the Olympic Games.

Since the last 007 movie, there has been an 'explosion' of cinemas built in places like China and Russia.

MI4 grossed over $100m in China...was that the 2nd biggest individual box-office after the USA? Recent bullshit like MIB3 did $75m in China. Considering that QoS did only about $21m in China back in 2008...there's potential for that to multiply by a scale factor of 4. If all other counties hold steady since Solace...Skyfall should go well north of $650m worldwide.

I'm expecting the Top 3 worldwide grosses to be in this order, and account for over 50% of the overall world total.

1. USA
2. UK
3. China

The big 3 in Asia...China, South Korea and Japan...might well do close to $200m.

2006: Penguins beat Bond
2008: Twilight beats Bond
2011: Twilight beats Penguins
2012:

Spoiler:

One surprising aspect of the Bond franchise of late is since the big hiatus before Goldeneye, Bond has demonstrated remarkable consistency at the box office. In the US and Canada, all of Brosnan's and Craig's films have sold roughly the same amount of tickets (between roughly 24 and 28 million tickets sold). Based on that, we can roughly speculate that the worst case for Skyfall will be $160 million domestically. The ceiling is harder to predict. With an opening weekend on par with Quantum (roughly $75 million accounting for ticket price increases) and good word of mouth, Skyfall can breeze beyond $200 million and climb even higher. I can't see it going beyond $250 million, though.

International box office has always been Bond's strongest department and I see no reason for Skyfall to be any different.

Prediction:

Opening Weekend: $70 million
Domestic Box Office: $220 Million
Intenational Box Office: $550 Million
Worldwide Box Office: $770 Million

Milestones to look for:
$75,429,200 Opening Weekend (Quantum's opening adjusted for ticket price. A sign that the excitement of a new Bond film overcame the sour taste Quantum left in cinemagoers mouthes)
$224,649,800 Domestic Total (To become the best selling Bond movie since Spymania in the 60's. Currently held by Moonraker)
$287,950,000 Domestic Total (I highly doubt Skyfall will reach this, but that's the domestic gross of You Only Live Twice converted to current average ticket prices. If Skyfall by some miracle does reach it, it will be third best selling Bond film of all time and only be behind the unapproachable milestones set by Goldfinger and Thunderball and will likely be the high water mark of the post Spymania Bond films)

Big changes this time with the 2th position of the list to number 19.
There are now Twenty One 2012 movies in the Top 497.

1-1. The Avengers $1,491.8
9-2. The Dark Knight Rises $941.2
5-3. Ice Age: Continental Drift $815.4
3-4. The Amazing Spider-Man $697.4
2-5. Hunger Games $684.9
4-6. MIB 3 $621.6
6-7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $582.7
16-8. Brave $442.4
7-9. Snow White and the Huntsman $392.9
8-10. The Intouchables $365.5
19-11. Ted $353.0
14-12. Prometheus $341.0
11-13. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $335.4 *
10-14. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325.9 *
13-15. Battleship $302.8 *
12-16. Wrath of the Titans $302.0 *
15-17. John Carter $282.8 *
17-18. Dark Shadows $236.5 *
18-19. American Reunion aka American Pie 8 $233.6 *
20-20. Safe House $202.5 *
N-21. 21 Jump Street $201.4 *

* This movie is already out/going to be released on DVD and BD , so boxoffice results not changed or last update with the last result..

This time only one movie is who new in the list who previous be under the 200 million.

The Boxoffice worldwide Top 5 not get any changes. The only one who mabey a change to defeat the Transformers 3 be The Dark Knight Rises who have on this moment $941.2 million as you can see above in the list. What be at this moment good enough for a 17th place.

Dutch Boxoffice:

The Expendables 2 opens with $639,708 and with theater count of 98.. Ice Age 4 is the new number 1!

1 Ice Age: Continental Drift WB $8,087,392 7/5
2 The Dark Knight Rises WB $7,106,980 7/20
3 The Avengers (2012) Disney $6,609,804 4/25
4 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted UPI $5,036,508 7/19
5 Intouchables n/a $4,570,372 3/22
6 The Hunger Games n/a $4,525,341 3/22
7 American Reunion UPI $3,872,019 4/5
8 Snow White and the Huntsman UPI $3,871,179 6/7
9 Magic Mike n/a $3,568,170 7/12
10 The Muppets Disney $3,379,778 2/9
11 The Amazing Spider-Man Sony $3,052,286 6/28
12 MIB 3 Sony $2,956,169 5/23
13 The Dictator UPI $2,836,361 5/17
14 Titanic 3D WB $2,615,303 4/5
15 The Descendants WB $2,510,197 2/2
16 Cool Kids Don't Cry n/a $2,504,261 2/16
17 The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (2011) Sony $2,501,036 1/19
18 Dr. Seuss' The Lorax UPI $2,477,417 4/12
19 Safe House UPI $2,444,442 2/23
20 This Means War WB $2,249,406 2/23
21 Prometheus WB $2,217,912 5/31
22 Step Up Revolution n/a $2,216,573 7/26
23 The Iron Lady n/a $1,937,439 1/12
24 Brave Disney $1,932,267 7/19
25 Süskind n/a $1,912,323 1/19
26 21 Jump Street Sony $1,882,985 6/21
27 Project X WB $1,878,508 3/1
28 Jackie n/a $1,827,546 5/10
29 What to Expect When You're Expecting DFW $1,806,845 5/24
30 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB $1,621,815 2/16

Time to take a look back how earlier sequel's doing in my country vs the new movie of the franchise:

Ice 4 (2012) $8,087,392 - Ice Age 3 (2009) $13,453,093 - Ice Age 2 (2006) $7,554,299
Dark Knight Rises (2012) $7,106,980 - Dark Knight (2008) $7,220,399 - Batman Begins (2005) $1,404,056
Madagascar 3 (2012) $5,036,508 - Madgascar 2 (2008) $8,604,006 - Madagascar (2005) $6,254,920

And why not:

QOS (2008) $8,856,996 - Casino Royale (2006) $10,559,951 - Die Another Day (2003) $7,348,890

Bond vs the rest: Die Another Day 2003:

1 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King n/a $19,162,315 12/17
2 Finding Nemo n/a $10,529,033 11/27
3 The Matrix Reloaded n/a $7,679,057 5/15
4 Die Another Day n/a $7,348,890 1/9
5 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl BVI $7,181,017 8/14

Ice Age 2 vs the rest: Casino Royale 2006

1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BVI $13,220,674 7/13
2 Casino Royale Sony $10,559,951 11/23
3 The Da Vinci Code Sony $10,169,441 5/18
4 Zwartboek (Black Book) A-Film $10,058,486 9/14
5 Ice Age: The Meltdown Fox $7,554,299 3/30

Dark Knight, Madagascar 2 vs the rest: Quantum of Solace 2008:

1 Mamma Mia! UPI $9,812,663 7/17
2 Quantum of Solace Sony $8,856,996 11/6
3 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa UPI $8,604,006 11/20
4 Oorlogswinter Benelux $8,212,584 11/27
5 The Dark Knight WB $7,220,399 7/24
6 The Kite Runner UPI $7,147,285 1/10

Angels & Demons vs the rest: Ice Age 3 2009

1 Avatar Fox $23,686,268 12/17
2 Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince WB $16,439,512 7/15
3 Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs Fox $13,453,093 7/1
4 Komt een vrouw bij de dokter Benelux $12,514,413 11/26
5 Up Disney $8,551,982 10/8
6 Angels & Demons Sony $7,760,800 5/14

Batman Begins vs the rest: Madagascar 2005

1 Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire WB $12,124,503 11/24
2 Madagascar UIP $6,254,920 6/16
3 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe BVI $6,168,428 12/21
4 War of the Worlds UIP $5,187,015 6/29
5 Charlie and the Chocolate Factory WB $5,123,055 7/21
6 King Kong UIP $4,796,229 12/14
7 Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith Fox $4,647,273 5/19
8 Mr. & Mrs. Smith Fox $4,585,304 7/28
9 Hitch UIP $4,160,196 3/10
10 Meet the Fockers UIP $3,690,754 2/10
11 The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie UIP $3,255,175 2/3
12 Kingdom of Heaven Fox $2,980,011 5/5
13 Het Paard van sinterklaas WB $2,955,239 10/13
14 Het Schnitzelparadijs Indep. $2,901,578 9/8
15 Kameleon 2 Indep. $2,733,118 6/30
16 Zoop in Afrika Indep. $2,719,805 7/14
17 National Treasure BVI $2,585,559 1/13
18 Flightplan BVI $2,411,733 11/10
19 Chicken Little BVI $2,316,917 11/17
20 The Pacifier BVI $2,145,061 4/28
21 Plop en het vioolavontuur Indep. $1,872,538 12/22
22 The Grudge Indep. $1,828,949 1/6
23 Vet hard A-Film $1,818,884 2/3
24 Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit UIP $1,817,678 10/13
25 Robots Fox $1,789,452 3/24
26 Pride and Prejudice UIP $1,753,514 9/22
27 The Aviator Indep. $1,699,564 1/20
28 Herbie: Fully Loaded BVI $1,653,384 7/7
29 The Island WB $1,558,497 8/11
30 The Interpreter UIP $1,533,973 4/14
31 De Griezelbus WB $1,470,633 12/7
32 The 40-Year-Old Virgin UIP $1,467,576 10/6
33 The Ring Two UIP $1,444,770 3/17
34 Lepel WB $1,430,478 2/3
35 Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous WB $1,418,123 3/24
36 Million Dollar Baby A-Film $1,414,538 2/27
37 Batman Begins WB $1,404,056 6/16
38 In Her Shoes Fox $1,373,214 12/1

MBalje wrote:

9-2. The Dark Knight Rises $941.2

Someone in another thread was saying that THE DARK KNIGHT RISES must be looked upon as a disappointment financially. Huh? The movie is now $60 million short of what THE DARK KNIGHT made (not adjusted for inflation).

Anyway, SKYFALL will make $200 million in the United States, and $550 million internationally, for a grand total of $750 million dollars at the box office.

I think your numbers seem about right, Grav.

Control wrote:

I think your numbers seem about right, Grav.

I actually low-balled it slightly. I believe SF will make somewhere between $205-210 domestically, and between $575-600 internationally, putting its total closer to $800 million. SF will open in the U.S. at about $87.5 million the first weekend.

I would tell you to go look at my posts at CBn where I totally predicted QOS' box office to the penny, but Jim deleted those posts last year when he disavowed me.

Gravity's Silhouette wrote:

SF will open in the U.S. at about $87.5 million the first weekend.

That seems a bit high to me, considering SF will probably open at 3,500 theaters at the most.

Gravity's Silhouette wrote:

Anyway, SKYFALL will make $200 million in the United States, and $550 million internationally, for a grand total of $750 million dollars at the box office.

I'd love to eat crow on this but at first glance it might sound a bit too ambitious.

I'd give Skyfall a $175m shot in the USA, possibly $175m-190m....anything else above that is a welcome bonus.

As far as worldwide BO goes...I'm expecting some excellent results from China and to a lesser extent, Russia. Movie-theaters have boomed over the past 4 years in China...MI4 made $100m in China...and SONY's turdfest MIB3 made $75m. Skyfall should do at least $75m in China, meaning almost 5x what QOS earned.

So Rest of World should eclipse $525m....putting Skyfall's potential at maybe $700m.

If Skyfall simply matches Quantum of Solace's $67.5 million first weekend gross in the U.S., it will be ahead of the game.

2012 movies that have exceeded that mark:

The Lorax $70.2 million (March 2-4)

The Hunger Games $152.5 million (March 23-25)

The Avengers $207.4 million (May 4-6)

The Avengers $103 million (May 11-13)

The Dark Knight Rises $160.9 million (June 20-22)

...and that's it

I actually believe Skyfall is a safe bet to eclipse $800 million worldwide. It would have to gain about $200 million (about $50-60m in US and $150 internationally) on Quantum and Casino, but this doesn't seem too difficult. The marketing campaign seems a lot stronger this time around. I like that Skyfall is being pushed as the must see event of the fall in so many seasonal previews. If the public reception in the UK and other first markets will be as good as that for Casino, then should be smooth sailing. Helps that the action competition in November will be weak.

GeneralGogol wrote:

I actually believe Skyfall is a safe bet to eclipse $800 million worldwide. It would have to gain about $200 million (about $50-60m in US and $150 internationally) on Quantum and Casino, but this doesn't seem too difficult. The marketing campaign seems a lot stronger this time around. I like that Skyfall is being pushed as the must see event of the fall in so many seasonal previews. If the public reception in the UK and other first markets will be as good as that for Casino, then should be smooth sailing. Helps that the action competition in November will be weak.

Agreed. Many people at B&B seem to be short-selling SKYFALL. If the movie can't make $800 million at the box office with this cast, this crew, and this marketing push behind it, then Babs and Michael need to sell the series and let someone else re-cast the role and run the franchise. $800 million should be a lock.

Gravity's Silhouette wrote:

GeneralGogol wrote:

I actually believe Skyfall is a safe bet to eclipse $800 million worldwide. It would have to gain about $200 million (about $50-60m in US and $150 internationally) on Quantum and Casino, but this doesn't seem too difficult. The marketing campaign seems a lot stronger this time around. I like that Skyfall is being pushed as the must see event of the fall in so many seasonal previews. If the public reception in the UK and other first markets will be as good as that for Casino, then should be smooth sailing. Helps that the action competition in November will be weak.

Agreed. Many people at B&B seem to be short-selling SKYFALL. If the movie can't make $800 million at the box office with this cast, this crew, and this marketing push behind it, then Babs and Michael need to sell the series and let someone else re-cast the role and run the franchise. $800 million should be a lock.

$800 million is pretty high. I don't know that Bond has that kind of appeal anymore, though I would like to see it and wouldn't necessarily rule that number out. It has a top-notch cast and crew, sure, but it doesn't really have anyone who will drive people to the theater based on their names alone.

I'm going to change my guess a little bit and go with with $725 million as the final worldwide number, which puts it about $165 million north of QOS. I say $75 million opening weekend and $190 million final total in North America.

That also puts it just ahead of "Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol" worldwide, which I think is the best measuring stick, though I think "Skyfall" will do better overseas but not quite as good in North America as that one did. IMAX ticket sales will certainly help those numbers and would almost assuredly put it at the top of the list of Bond films at the box office (not adjusted for inflation, of course) unless it turns out to be a total dud.

This is, of course, an optimistic prediction, and assumes the reviews are good and the marketing campaign kicks into extremely high gear. They're also going to have to get the sour taste out of people's mouths after QOS, so I figure they would need to market this as "Bond with a capital B" to make these numbers. People were quite amped for Bond after CR, and I don't know if that's necessarily the case with this one.

Anyway, I think we should make a thread and have an official contest for box office predictions. Winner gets a lot of pride. Or a Baker Street voucher.

Jack Wade wrote:

Anyway, I think we should make a thread and have an official contest for box office predictions. Winner gets a lot of pride. Or a Baker Street voucher.

Prisoner Monkeys needs a Baker Street voucher in order to get laid. I suggest we let him win by default for the sake of charity.

Jack Wade wrote:

$800 million is pretty high. I don't know that Bond has that kind of appeal anymore, though I would like to see it and wouldn't necessarily rule that number out. It has a top-notch cast and crew, sure, but it doesn't really have anyone who will drive people to the theater based on their names alone.

I'm going to change my guess a little bit and go with with $725 million as the final worldwide number, which puts it about $165 million north of QOS. I say $75 million opening weekend and $190 million final total in North America.

Real Bond fans would say that SKYFALL will earn $800 million dollars. Clearly you, and several other people, are not legitimate Bond fans. I'm keeping a list and your name is on it.

People are also forgetting the 3rd Bond FIlm Rule: the third film of any Bond actor to do 3 or more Bond films is his biggest to date. Also, each actor's third Bond film helped correct the wrongs of the previous Bond film and put the series back on track. Just like Goldfinger helped redeem the series after FRWL, and TSWLM saved the series after TMWTGG, and TWINE was a reaction to TND, so to will SKFYALL be a reaction to QUANTURDS OF SOLACE.