WINDFALL at the Box Office

I saw SF last night at a spiffy new 450-seat IMAX in Lubbock, Texas. This was the late showing, which commenced at 9:50 p.m. Lines were out the door. Every seat was taken and I'm guessing they turned people away. SF could be gigantic.

Gravity's Silhouette wrote:

I don't know what the audiences scores have been for SF yet, but if they are good then the film will probably clear $250 million in the U.S. and my prediction $206 domestically and 800 internationally will be on the low side.

Its Cinemascore is an A.

jet set willy wrote:

I'm reading predictions on BO forums that we are looking at $100m this weekend in the US,

Revised estimates always trend downwards. Latest numbers that Deadline Hollywood are reporting are $33 million for Friday. Now that we have clarity on Friday's numbers, it's easier to predict the total weekend box office in America: 82.5 million. Not bad. Higher than the studio was projecting; twice as much as Casino Royale, and obviously better than QOS' numbers, which in turn were better than CR's. QOS' didn't turn people off from the series, so that's a good thing I imagine.

Looks like the film *could* wrap up its theatrical run in the U.S. with about $247 million. I think it will have hit $200 million by the time the Thanksgiving holiday is over.

Box Office Mojo has their estimate at $30,800,000 for Friday, which I assume is direct from Sony, with $33 mil total including the IMAX previews.

Unless all the estimates are conservative or SKYFALL increases in attendance today, I think $80 million is a reach at best. Even using CR's legs, SF still projects out to $77 million.

I wonder if cinema attendance in the New York area is affected much by weather the past two weeks. In any case, $77 million is a nice big number.

USA weekend is excellent

87m

The magic number is around $87M ($30.8M Friday, $33.8M Saturday, and an estimated $20.3M Sunday). This is absolutely the biggest-grossing 007 movie ever in the string of films since 1962 – not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices or IMAX premiums – blowing away Quantum Of Solace‘s $67.5M in 2008.

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

Mrs Aural Sects wrote:

USA weekend is excellent

87m

The magic number is around $87M ($30.8M Friday, $33.8M Saturday, and an estimated $20.3M Sunday). This is absolutely the biggest-grossing 007 movie ever in the string of films since 1962 – not adjusted for inflation or higher ticket prices or IMAX premiums – blowing away Quantum Of Solace‘s $67.5M in 2008.

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

On August 27th I said this:

I actually low-balled it slightly. I believe SF will make somewhere between $205-210 domestically, and between $575-600 internationally, putting its total closer to $800 million. SF will open in the U.S. at about $87.5 million the first weekend.

I would tell you to go look at my posts at CBn where I totally predicted QOS' box office to the penny, but Jim deleted those posts last year when he disavowed me.

I can say that there was at least one person on this board that recognized the genius that was amongst them: Control. And I quote: "Your numbers seem about right, Grav." Congratulations to Control for knowing a winner when he sees one.

I am INVINCIBLE!!!

Sharp prediction, Gravity!

GeneralGogol wrote:

$75 million - North America opening
$235 million - North America total
$525 million - international total
$760 million - global total

I couldn't have imagined that I'd be low-balling the earnings so much! I still think Skyfall will finish with $235-250m in North America, but over $600m internationally - a $900m total can't be ruled out. I think the film will be huge in China.

Good call, Grav. I ended up lowballing SKYFALL each time, even with the Friday numbers. I'm glad I'm wrong.

Opening Weekend:

1. SKYFALL: $88,364,714
2. QUANTUM OF SOLACE: $72,579,830
3. DIE ANOTHER DAY: $60,549,190
4. THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH: $49,335,820
5. CASINO ROYALE '06: $46,870,430
6. GOLDENEYE: $39,790,170
7. TOMORROW NEVER DIES: $36,250,890
8. NEVER SAY NEVER AGAIN: $25,459,780
9. A VIEW TO A KILL: $22,983,940
10. MOONRAKER: $22,657,310
11.THE LIVING DAYLIGHTS: $22,511,830
12.OCTOPUSSY: $20,683,890
13. FOR YOUR EYES ONLY: $17,400,000
14. LICENCE TO KILL: $16,375,360



Domestic Box Office:

1. THUNDERBALL: $467,189,850
2. GOLDFINGER: $381,306,950
3. YOU ONLY LIVE TWICE: $298,506,630
4. DIAMONDS ARE FOREVER: $250,374,070
5. MOONRAKER: $224,101,740
6. DIE ANOTHER DAY: $207,021,330
7. CASINO ROYALE '06: $192,203,210
8. FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE: $185,101,450
9. LIVE AND LET DIE: $184,384,660
10. QUANTUM OF SOLACE: $180,961,870
11. TOMORROW NEVER DIES: 180,662,220
12. THE SPY WHO LOVED ME: $178,858,030
13. THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH: $176,324,470
14. CASINO ROYALE '67: $173,208,830
15. GOLDENEYE: $161,605,210
16. OCTOPUSSY: $157,741,550
17. ON HER MAJESTY'S SECRET SERVICE: $143,601,560
18. FOR YOUR EYES ONLY: $139,538,680
18. NEVER SAY NEVER AGAIN: $131,037,700
20. DR. NO: $121,504,060
21. A VIEW TO A KILL: $108,236,450
22. THE LIVING DAYLIGHTS: $104,267,380
23. THE MAN WITH THE GOLDEN GUN: $98,439,510
24. SKYFALL: $90,564,714
25. LICENCE TO KILL: $64,695,080



International Box Office:

1. LIVE AND LET DIE: $658,895,800
2. THUNDERBALL: $570,101,210
3. GOLDFINGER: $551,039,320
4. THE SPY WHO LOVED ME: $536,365,260
5. CASINO ROYALE '06: $489,895,400
6. YOU ONLY LIVE TWICE: $474,697,600
7. QUANTUM OF SOLACE: $447,966,630
8. MOONRAKER: $446,213,580
9. SKYFALL: $427,810,538
10. DIAMONDS ARE FOREVER: $412,421,290
11. ON HER MAJESTY'S SECRET SERVICE: $407,487,590
12. FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE: $403,866,690
13. FOR YOUR EYES ONLY: $376,735,680
14. GOLDENEYE: $373,172,770
15. THE MAN WITH THE GOLDEN GUN: $359,680,640
16. DIE ANOTHER DAY: $348,627,030
17. DR. NO: $329,210,230
18. THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH: $326,259,860
19. TOMORROW NEVER DIES: $299,469,200
20. THE LIVING DAYLIGHTS: $285,213,420
21. OCTOPUSSY: $277,889,100
22. NEVER SAY NEVER AGAIN: $240,700,450
23. A VIEW TO A KILL: $231,131,810
24. LICENCE TO KILL: $226,803,090
25. CASINO ROYALE '67: $134,410,060



Worldwide Box Office

1. THUNDERBALL: $1,037,291,060
2. GOLDFINGER: $932,246,270
3. LIVE AND LET DIE: $843,280,460
4. YOU ONLY LIVE TWICE: $773,204,230
5. THE SPY WHO LOVED ME: $715,223,290
6. CASINO ROYALE '06: $682,098,610
7. MOONRAKER: $670,315,320
8. DIAMONDS ARE FOREVER: $663,795,360
9. QUANTUM OF SOLACE: $628,928,500
10. FROM RUSSIA WITH LOVE: $588,968,140
11.DIE ANOTHER DAY: $555,648,360
12. ON HER MAJESTY'S SECRET SERVICE: $551,089,150
13. GOLDENEYE: $534,777,980
14. SKYFALL: $518,375,252
15. FOR YOUR EYES ONLY: $516,274,360
16. THE WORLD IS NOT ENOUGH: $502,584,330
17. TOMORROW NEVER DIES: $480,131,420
18. THE MAN WITH THE GOLDEN GUN: $458,120,150
19. DR. NO: $450,714,290
20. OCTOPUSSY: $435,630,650
21. THE LIVING DAYLIGHT: $389,480,800
22. NEVER SAT NEVER AGAIN: $371,738,150
23. A VIEW TO A KILL: $339,368,260
24. CASINO ROYALE '67: $307,618,890
25. LICENCE TO KILL: $291,498,170

With estimates being an inexact science and Monday being a day off for a lot of people in the States, SKYFALL can still hit $90 million. This is still massive though, far beyond what I would have expected considering Quantum's rep and Craig's previous performance in the states. Just the fact that:

a) SKYFALL has made more money in 3 weekends than any of the 80's films
b) SKYFALL has made more money internationally than any of the Brosnan films and is presently outdrawing QOS by a lot
c) SKYFALL has the biggest US Opening Weekend for any spy drama even when adjusting for ticket price or dollar inflation. Yes, even the M:I films.

We where saying last year that M:I GHOST PROTOCOL set the bar for SKYFALL. Well, SKYFALL is chilling at that bar wondering what all the fuss was about.

EDIT: Some extra notes. If SKYFALL follows the same pattern that QUANTUM did over the next 4 weeks, we're looking at $200 million in the US by December. SKYFALL was better received by both fans and critics than QUANTUM was and should hold up better.

Tubes wrote:

EDIT: Some extra notes. If SKYFALL follows the same pattern that QUANTUM did over the next 4 weeks, we're looking at $200 million in the US by December.

But that's the main point: it WILL NOT follow the same pattern as QUANTUM because SKYFALL is a movie that people will actually want to see, want to see again, and will refer it to friends and family as a "must see". Unlike QUANTUM, SKYFALL doesn't make me want to go park my car in the garage and wrap my lips around the muffler.

Even for those who didn't love the film, I would say that the success of the film can only help move Babs in the direction of "going big" and "opening up" the series even further in the sequels. It's astoundingly ironic that Babs felt she needed permission from THE DARK KNIGHT to have a larger-than-life villain in a Bond film, but since the audiences have responded so enthusiastically, let's hope that we don't regress back to the staid, vanilla-heavies such as Dominic Greene, Elvis, Le Chiffre, etc....It's like, okay, you know, to let the series, like, have some fun or something Babs. Not every Bond film needs to be rooted in torture and self-angst. Let Bond breathe a little. Live a little. Laugh a little.

I think the only way to ensure topping SKYFALL's grosses will be to bring in Christopher Nolan with a 2-film deal to cap off Craig's era.

Tubes wrote:

If SKYFALL follows the same pattern that QUANTUM did over the next 4 weeks, we're looking at $200 million in the US by December. SKYFALL was better received by both fans and critics than QUANTUM was and should hold up better.

Quantum atrophied 60.4% in the second weekend to $26,707,945...Skyfall has to exceed $35m in its 2nd weekend to prevent a similar disaster with that % and keep its 200m target in sight. Its word of mouth is much better.

I understand all that. Matching QUANTUM is effectively a worst case scenario.

Projections based on previous movies in the pre-pre Thanksgiving timeslot:

2011 IMMORTALS: $230 million
2010 UNSTOPPABLE: $325 million
2009 2012: $226 million
2008 QUANTUM OF SOLACE: $222 million
2003 MASTER AND COMMANDER: $328 million
2002: HARRY POTTER 2: $261 million

Those are all the big action movies that where released during this time of the year.

Unless something disastrous happens, SKYFALL will be a top 5 Bond in the US when it is all said and done.

Mrs Aural Sects wrote:

Tubes wrote:

If SKYFALL follows the same pattern that QUANTUM did over the next 4 weeks, we're looking at $200 million in the US by December. SKYFALL was better received by both fans and critics than QUANTUM was and should hold up better.

Quantum atrophied 60.4% in the second weekend to $26,707,945...Skyfall has to exceed $35m in its 2nd weekend to prevent a similar disaster with that % and keep its 200m target in sight. Its word of mouth is much better.

I like your figures. Perfectly rounded.

Very impressive. I anticipated returns similar to Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. Wasn't sure Skyfall would beat those as handily as it did.

Anyway, a writer for Box Office Mojo tweeted earlier that he sees Skyfall on track to eclipse $900 million worldwide when all is said and done and that $1 billion isn't out of the question.

Thunderball is getting a mite uneasy about now.

Jeez never thought Bond would ever get close to the Bondmania grosses again. Also I am surprised LALD was so successful outside of the US. Was it all the Saint fans watching for Moore?

Perilagu Khan wrote:

Thunderball is getting a mite uneasy about now.

It would have to get very strong legs to pose such a threat, especially in the US. Still, it's definitely looking to be one of the top Bond films of all time at the box office. It's quite reassuring 007 is not only back after this hiatus but is here to stay. Let's hope the best for Bond 24 to be a worthy adventure.

Python wrote:

Let's hope the best for Bond 24 to be a worthy adventure.

If there is one thing to be worried about, it's that after Bond is rejuvenated critically and commercially, the next installment is usually lazy. Think TSWLM to MR, GE to the rest of the Brosnan era, and CR to QOS.

I dread about thinking of falling into that trap all over again (though I LOVE MR way over TSWLM). I hope for best, but I'm not gonna expect that to happen. The quality of Bond has been too schizophrenic after the 60s.

Tubes wrote:

Python wrote:

Let's hope the best for Bond 24 to be a worthy adventure.

If there is one thing to be worried about, it's that after Bond is rejuvenated critically and commercially, the next installment is usually lazy. Think TSWLM to MR, GE to the rest of the Brosnan era, and CR to QOS.

Of course I prefer MR to TSWLM.

I wouldn't say QOS was lazy, just a complete and total clusterfuck. TND was a clusterfuck too, and it sounds like they had something more interesting in mind, despite the shambles of a script they ended up with. I think EON has always had pretty good intentions, and have simply pulled a Dick Van Dyke ottoman tumble several times to varying degrees. They're not trying to make bad movies, they're just good at it.

Gravity's Silhouette wrote:

Even for those who didn't love the film, I would say that the success of the film can only help move Babs in the direction of "going big" and "opening up" the series even further in the sequels. It's astoundingly ironic that Babs felt she needed permission from THE DARK KNIGHT to have a larger-than-life villain in a Bond film, but since the audiences have responded so enthusiastically, let's hope that we don't regress back to the staid, vanilla-heavies such as Dominic Greene, Elvis, Le Chiffre, etc....It's like, okay, you know, to let the series, like, have some fun or something Babs. Not every Bond film needs to be rooted in torture and self-angst. Let Bond breathe a little. Live a little. Laugh a little.

I think the only way to ensure topping SKYFALL's grosses will be to bring in Christopher Nolan with a 2-film deal to cap off Craig's era.

I agree. QOS's biggest issue, in hindsight, is not so much the quick editing or the action-heavy plot - it was that it took itself too seriously. There wasn't much fun in that movie. SF was able to be just as hard hitting and weighty, if not more so than the CR and QOS, but was also able to weave in humor and fun.

Not to go on and on about it, but I remember through both viewings in the theater, the audience was sort of tense through the first half of the movie. It's almost like the recent movies had everyone afraid to have fun watching a Bond flick. It wasn't until the Komodo dragon bit that the audience relaxed.

Tubes wrote:

Python wrote:

Let's hope the best for Bond 24 to be a worthy adventure.

If there is one thing to be worried about, it's that after Bond is rejuvenated critically and commercially, the next installment is usually lazy. Think TSWLM to MR, GE to the rest of the Brosnan era, and CR to QOS.

I feel the same thing. It's a combination of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and "striking while the iron is hot" that cause a new film to seemingly be slapped together and rushed out.

Taking their time may be the key. Dammit, B24 doesn't have to come out two years after SF squarely on the peg. If they need to take a bit more time to make the film as close to perfect as possible, by all means do!

Skyfall's weekend actuals were adjusted up to $88.4 million.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=45&p=.htm

Jack Wade wrote:

Anyway, a writer for Box Office Mojo tweeted earlier that he sees Skyfall on track to eclipse $900 million worldwide when all is said and done and that $1 billion isn't out of the question.

So when a stranger tweets that SKYFALL is on track to eclipse $900 million worldwide you take his word for it, but when I make this same bold prediction MONTHS IN ADVANCE you all act as if I have no credibility. I've been successfully arm-chair quarterbacking and back-seat-driving this series for almost 30 years now. I know more about what it takes to make a hit Bond film than Babs "Coltrane" Broccoli will ever know, or my name isn't Gravity S. Silhouette.

I just love the way Skyfall is monopolising the main page of Box Office Mojo this week.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/

Adele's song is also back in the iTunes Top 5 in the USA.